Trump's Remarks Trigger Risk-Averse Sentiment, Copper Prices Fluctuate Downward [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

Published: Mar 11, 2025 08:23

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[Trump's Remarks Trigger Risk Aversion Sentiment, Copper Prices Fluctuate Downward] Macro side, Trump admitted that his comprehensive tariff policy might bring some "short-term" pain to Americans and did not rule out the possibility that tariff-related pain could lead to an economic recession. These remarks triggered heightened market risk aversion sentiment, with the US dollar index rebounding, putting pressure on copper prices. Additionally, the market's concern that US tariff policies could drag down the global economy and weaken energy demand led international oil prices to pull back to a six-month low, further weighing on copper prices.

SMM March 11 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,531.5/mt, initially fluctuating upward to an intraday high of $9,574/mt. It then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $9,488/mt near the close before slightly rebounding to settle at $9,493/mt, down 1.14%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 303,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2504 contract opened at 78,140 yuan/mt, initially reaching an intraday high of 78,320 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated downward to a low of 78,010 yuan/mt, slightly rebounded near the close, and continued to pull back, finally settling at 78,070 yuan/mt, down 0.47%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest stood at 164,000 lots. Macro side, Trump acknowledged that his comprehensive tariff policy might bring some "short-term" pain to Americans and did not rule out the possibility that tariff-related pain could lead to an economic recession. This statement heightened market risk aversion sentiment, causing the US dollar index to rebound, which pressured copper prices. Additionally, market concerns that US tariff policies could drag down the global economy and weaken energy demand led international oil prices to fall to a six-month low, further weighing on copper prices. Fundamentally, high copper prices have suppressed domestic downstream consumption. However, with the peak consumption season approaching, the pullback in copper prices is expected to boost downstream orders. As of March 10, SMM data showed that copper inventories in major regions nationwide decreased by 8,000 mt WoW to 360,000 mt. Notably, current domestic inventories are already below the levels of the same period last year, indicating a turning point in inventory levels. Looking ahead to this week, the opening of the export window is expected to drive an increase in exports and a decrease in imports. Coupled with a recovery in consumption during the production peak season, social inventories are expected to continue declining. In terms of prices, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating and stable trend today.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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